Category Archives: Wheat

USDA WASDE Results, January 12, 2015

US Corn & Soybean Production

Jan. #
USDA Nov.
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
2013 Final
Corn Total Crop
14.216
14.407
14.349
14.171 – 14.554
13.925
Corn Yield Avg.
171.0
173.4
173.3
171.3 – 174.3
158.8
Harvested Acres
83.1
83.097
82.765
82.057 – 83.527
87.668
Soybean Crop
3.969
3.958
3.956
3.844 – 4.020
3.358
Soy Yield Avg.
47.8
47.5
47.6
46.8 – 48.2
44.0

Harvested Acres

83.1
83.403
83.044
82.126 – 83.403
76.253

2014/15 January Ending Stocks

 
Jan. #
USDA Dec 2014
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
1.877
1.998
1.927
1.710 – 2.081
Soybeans
0.410
0.410
0.393
0.355 – 0.452
Wheat
0.687
0.654
0.666
0.636 – 0.699

December 1st Quarterly Stocks

 
Jan #
USDA Sep. 1
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
USDA Dec 1, 2013
Corn
11.203
1.236
11.123
10.820 – 11.325
10.453
Soybeans
2.524
0.092
2.590
2.400 – 2.742
2.154
Wheat
1.520
1.914
1.499
1.400 – 1.585
1.475

2014/15 World Ending Stocks

 
Jan #
USDA Dec 2014
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
189.15
192.20
191.19
186.50 – 193.00
Soybeans
90.78
89.87
89.35
87.40 – 90.55
Wheat
196
194.90
194.33
190.90 – 196.00

USDA Winter Wheat Acres

 
Jan #
Previous USDA
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Total Winter
40.45
42.399
42.564
41.000 – 44.000
Hard Red
29.50
30.471
31.023
29.800 – 32.115
Soft Red
7.50
8.498
8.039
7.432 – 8.739
White
3.48
3.430
3.502
3.200 – 3.823

USDA Estimates for Final 2014 production

US Corn & Soybean Production

 
Jan. #
USDA Nov.
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
2013 Final
Corn Total Crop
???
14.407
14.349
14.171 – 14.554
13.925
Corn Yield Avg.
???
173.4
173.3
171.3 – 174.3
158.8
Harvested Acres
???
83.097
82.765
82.057 – 83.527
87.668
Soybean Crop
???
3.958
3.956
3.844 – 4.020
3.358
Soy Yield Avg.
???
47.5
47.6
46.8 – 48.2
44.0

Harvested Acres

???
83.403
83.044
82.126 – 83.403
76.253

2014/15 January Ending Stocks

 
Jan. #
USDA Dec 2014
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
???
1.998
1.927
1.710 – 2.081
Soybeans
???
0.410
0.393
0.355 – 0.452
Wheat
???
0.654
0.666
0.636 – 0.699

December 1st Quarterly Stocks

 
Jan #
USDA Sep. 1
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
USDA Dec 1, 2013
Corn
???
1.236
11.123
10.820 – 11.325
10.453
Soybeans
???
0.092
2.590
2.400 – 2.742
2.154
Wheat
???
1.914
1.499
1.400 – 1.585
1.475

2014/15 World Ending Stocks

 
Jan #
USDA Dec 2014
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
???
192.20
191.19
186.50 – 193.00
Soybeans
???
89.87
89.35
87.40 – 90.55
Wheat
???
194.90
194.33
190.90 – 196.00

USDA Winter Wheat Acres

 
Jan #
Previous USDA
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Total Winter
???
42.399
42.564
41.000 – 44.000
Hard Red
???
30.471
31.023
29.800 – 32.115
Soft Red
???
8.498
8.039
7.432 – 8.739
White
???
3.430
3.502
3.200 – 3.823

2014/15 South American Production Numbers

 
Jan #
USDA Dec 2014
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Brazil Corn
???
75.00
74.66
72.25 – 75.80
Argentine Corn
???
22.00
22.49
21.20 – 29.20
Brazil Soy
???
94.00
94.60
93.50 – 98.00
Argentine Soy
???
55.00
55.45
54.00 – 59.20

The REAL Reason I Believe Grains Are Moving Higher

As most of you know, I spend a lot of my time talking to fund traders and large money-managers trying to pick their brain. With another year of big gains in equities and only 12-trading days until year-end, most of the big payers seem to be looking for ways lock in profits, hedge against “unknown” price-risk and decoupling. The crazy uncertainty now surrounding crude oil and the energy sector has a lot of guys spooked and is obviously pushing “fund-money” in several unexpected directions. A few clear and obvious beneficiaries as of late have been corn, soybeans and wheat. This might be a tough bridge for some to cross, but for others it appears much more logical, especially when you consider we are rolling into what could be more extreme winter weather, continuing turmoil between Ukraine and Russia, an election in Japan, Fed divergence from the rest of the central banks, a newly controlled Republican Congress, Greece and parts of the EU once again moving towards unstable ground. Not to mention the amount of debt the oil companies had on their books 5-years back was only around $200 billion, while now it’s all of a sudden up around $3 TRILLION. In other words there could be secondary derivative impacts the investment world hasn’t even thought about yet that players are now trying to reposition and protect against. Remember, we have now seen over 80 straight days of declining prices at the pump. Also remember, this is traditionally a “thin” period of time where moves can become extremely over-exaggerated! In other words, when you get major “headline-risk” like we are seeing in the energy markets, coupled with lower than normal trade volume, all bets are off in regard to traditional fundamental rhyme and reason. Like Bill Gross said this past weekend, “The sharp decline in the price of oil has disoriented markets and changed the perception of the creditworthiness of companies and countries. When levered money moves and tries to seek a safe haven, basically you have violent price movements across the board.”

USDA’s ​December Supply & Demand

USDA’s ​December Supply & Demand

US 2014/15 Ending Stocks (In millions of bushels)

 
 USDA Dec. 
Avg. Estimate
Range of Estimates
USDA Nov.
Corn
1.998
​2.027
1.905 – 2.156
2.008
Soybeans
.410
​0.427
0.400 – 0.455
0.450
Wheat
.654
​0.654
0.642 – 0.681
0.644

World 2014/15 Ending Stocks (In million metric tons)

 
 USDA Dec.
Avg. Estimate
Range of Estimates
USDA Nov.
Corn
192.20
​191.42
189.60 – 194.00
​191.50
Soybeans
89.87
​89.7
88.50 – 91.60
90.28
Wheat
194.90
191.75
189.50 – 193.20
 
​192.90
 

South American 2014/15 Production Worksheet

USDA Dec.
Avg. Trade Guess
Trade Range
USDA Nov.
Argentina
Corn
22.00
23.07
21.00 – 29.10
23.00
Soybeans
55.00
55.45
55.00 – 58.60
55.00
Brazil
Corn
75.00
74.01
68.70 – 75.50
75.00
Soybeans
94.00
93.39
92.00 – 98.00
94.00
 

USDA November Supply & Demand Results

USDA Highlights – In a somewhat surprising move the USDA elected to lower their US corn yield estimate from 174.2 down to 173.4 bushels per acre.  Corn acres left “unchanged.” Corn exports as well as feed and residual were left “unchanged.” Corn use for ethanol was raised by 25 million bushels. Food, seed and industrial was raised by 5 million bushels as well.

 Soybean yield raised slightly from 47.1 to 47.5 bushels per acre.  US soybean acreage left “unchanged”. Soybean exports raised higher by 20 million bushels.  Soybean crush raised higher by 10 million bushels. Residual raised by 1 million bushels.  Net-net no change in the 450 ending stocks estimate. 

Wheat crop (US) lowered by 9 million bushels as yield and harvested acreage is reduced. 

Global Changes:     

  • Chinese corn crop lowered from 217.00 down to 214.00.  At the same time they lowered Chinese corn imports from 3.00 down to 2.50 
    • Ukraine corn production raised higher by 2.0 MMTs 
    • EU corn production raised higher by 2.03 MMTS  
    • Argentine & Brazilian corn production left “unchanged” 
    • Argentine & Brazilian soybean production “unchanged” 
    • World soybean production raised from 311.20 to 312.06
    • Australian wheat production lowered from 25.0 to 24.0
    • Kazakhstan wheat production lowered from 12.50 to 12.0
    • EU wheat production raised from 153.98 to 155.40  
    • Russian wheat production left “unchanged”  
    • World wheat production lowered from 721.12 down to 719.86 
USDA’s NOVEMBER Supply & Demand Worksheet

US 2014/15 Production (In billions of bushels and per-acre yields)

 
USDA Nov. 
Avg. Estimate
Range of Estimates
USDA Oct.
USDA 2013
Corn Production
14.407
14.551
14.242 – 14.842
14.475
13.925

Corn
Yield

173.4
175.233
171.40 – 178.60
174.2
158.8
Soybeans Production
3.958
3.976
3.903 – 4.064
3.927
3.358
Soybean Yield
47.5
47.608
46.80 – 48.70
47.1
44.00

US 2014/15 Ending Stocks (In millions of bushels)

 
USDA Nov. 
Avg. Estimate
Range of Estimates
USDA Oct.
Corn
2.008
2.135
1.850 – 2.282
2.081
Soybeans
0.450
0.442
0.403 – 0.513
0.450
Wheat
0.644
0.660
0.634 – 0.682
0.654

World 2014/15 Ending Stocks (In million metric tons)

 
USDA Nov.
Avg. Estimate
Range of Estimates
USDA Oct.
Corn
191.5
190.77
185.60 – 194.18
190.58
Soybeans
90.28
90.37
89.50 – 92.55
90.67
Wheat
192.9
192.15
189.79 – 196.40
192.59

 

Corn & Soybean Harvest, Winter Wheat Conditions

The US corn harvest is now reported at 80% complete and back on pace with the 5-year average.  Some of the bulls are talking more about “weather” concerns, primarily those concerns that pertain to the 1.0 billion plus bushels of corn that still remain out in the fields of: IA (approximately 435 million bushels still in the fields); MN (about 125 million); WI (about 245 million); and the Dakota’s (about 225 million). The bears on the other hand seem content adding little if any “risk-premium” to the remaining harvest concerns, especially now that we are no longer “behind.” 

WeeklyHarvestedCorn11.10.14(580)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

90% of a record US soybean crop is out of the field now, compared to the 5-year average of 91%.

WeeklyHarvestedSoybea11.10.14(580)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US winter wheat crop appears to have improved a bit from last week as the overall condition rating jumps from 59% to 60% now rated “Good-to-Excellent.”  The crop is also right on track in regard to planting pace and is slightly ahead of schedule in regard to emergence.

WeeklyHarvestedWheat11.10.14(580)

Corn & Soybean Harvest, Winter Wheat Conditions

USDA showed Minnesota harvested 30%, Iowa 25% and Nebraska 20% of their crop last week. US corn is now 65% harvested and appears to be closing in on our more traditional average.

WeeklyHarvested11.03.14Corn(580)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

83% of the US soybean crop has been  harvested, which is right in line with our 5-year average of 83%. In other words, there is not a lot of risk-premium left out in the field.

WeeklyHarvested11.03.14Soybean(580)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA maintained its 59% “Good to Excellent” rating for the winter wheat crop.  90% of the winter wheat crop is planted and 77% is emerged, both of which are ahead of the average.  As you can see the PNW and the Midwest seems to be struggling.

WeeklyHarvested11.03.14Wheat(580)

Corn & Soybean Harvest, Winter Wheat Planting

Corn harvest jumps +15% from the previous week and now stands at 46% complete.  We are still running well behind our 5-year average of 65%, but we are quickly moving in the right direction. The areas currently running the furthest behind are: ND 30% behind; IA 29% behind; WI 27% behind; SD 26% behind; MN 22% behind; NE 19% behind; and IL 13% behind. 

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Soybean Harvest: US producers pushed harvest from 53% complete last week to 70% complete this week.  Even though they made huge strides, we are still running about 6% behind our 5-year harvested average of 76%. The states lagging the furthest behind are: MI 29% behind; IN 25% behind; OH 23% behind; and WI 16% behind. 

WeeklyHarvested10.27.14Soybeans(580)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The USDA shows the winter wheat crop at 84% planted, which is on average as a whole, but states like IL are still running 34% behind their traditional pace. In their first estimate of the year, the USDA rated 59% of the winter wheat crop in “Good-to-Excellent” condition compared to about 61% rated “Good-to-Excellent” last year.

WeeklyHarvested10.27.14Wheat(580)

NEW Farm Bill Might Not Save As Much As Originally Anticipated

Low crop prices are causing some to rethink the savings associated with the newest version of the Farm Bill. The fear is that taxpayers may end up paying more to subsidize farmers in this bill than the previous. What I am hearing is that the Farm Bill passed back in February may NOT save the $14 billion it once touted. The problem is the bill was constructed when commodity prices were significantly higher and now that prices are much lower it may trigger greater subsidies. If you remember, the law replaced direct payments with programs tied to price and revenue. This is very preliminary, but some are estimating that a drop in crop prices, combined with subsidies added in the new farm bill, may more than double payments in 2015 from what lawmakers had originally anticipated. There are early talks that payments could reach $6.5 billion for this year’s harvest, or about $4 billion more than anticipated. Thoughts are the new bill means that government subsidies could both be potentially larger and quicker to kick in. Previously, corn farmers were paid when the price fell below $2.63 a bushel. The new support may trigger much higher. Some sources are saying government payments may average between $30 and $40 per acre in 2014 and 2015 compared to a $24 per acre average from 2007 to 2013.  Wheat, the fourth-biggest crop, is also below the threshold for subsidies. Rice and peanuts crop prices may also spur payments. Personally, I think it’s a bit early to start blaming Congress​ – ​we have to remember that no one has a crystal-ball in regard to price.

Corn & Soybean Harvest, Winter Wheat Planting

US Corn Harvest estimated at just 31% complete vs. the 5-year average of 53%. Many of the important states are still running 20-30% behind their average.

  • IA 19% harvested vs. 53% on average  (-34% behind)
  • MN 16% harvested vs. 47% on average  (-31% behind) 
  • ND 7% harvested vs. 37% on average  (-30% behind)
  • SD 19% harvested vs. 45% on average  (-26% behind)
  • WI 11% harvested vs. 35% on average  (-24% behind)
  • IL 43% harvested vs. 63% on average  (-20% behind)
  • IN 31% harvested vs. 51% on average  (-20% behind)
  • MI 10% harvested vs. 30% on average  (-20% behind)
  • NE 28% harvested vs. 45% on average  (-17% behind)
  • MO 58% harvested vs. 75% on average  (-17% behind) 

 

US Soybean Harvest reported at 53% complete vs. the 5-year average of 66%.  As you can see form the graphic below the northern states made big progress last week and are now running ahead of schedule (Minnesota and the Dakota’s).  On the flip there are still a few major producing states that are running way behind:

  • MI 23% harvested vs. 60% on average  (-37% behind) 
  • IN 31% harvested vs. 62% on average (-31% behind) 
  • IL 37% harvested vs. 66% on average (-29% behind)
  • WI 42% harvested vs. 64% on average  (-22% behind) 
  • MO 25% harvested vs. 46% on average  (-21% behind)
  • OH 36% harvested vs. 56% on average  (-20% behind)  
  • IA 61% harvested vs. 77% on average  (-16% behind)  

 

US Winter Wheat Planting continues to stay slightly ahead of pace at 76% complete vs. the 5-year average 77%. The biggest problems obviously remain in the eastern parts of the Midwest.IL 22% planted vs. 59% on average  (-37% behind)

  • IN 37% planted vs. 57% on average  (-20% behind) 
  • MO 24% planted vs. 40% on average  (-16% behind)
  • MI 60% planted vs. 75% on average  (-15% behind)
  • OH 55% planted vs. 63% on average  (-8% behind)
  • KS 78% planted vs. 84% on average  (-6% behind)