Category Archives: USDA

Looking At 2015 Corn Production

Traders must now turn the page from “old-crop” to “new-crop.” Questions and debates are already arising in regard to 2015 production: 

  • How many corn acres will US farmers plant in 2015? Most early guesses range from 87 to 90 million acres. The consensus seems to be a number north of 89.0 million will be considered somewhat bearish, while a number sub-88 million might start to be considered somewhat bullish. Obviously the bulls are wanting to see the acreage number slip down to around 87 million acres or lower. On the flip-side the bears are thinking if corn prices can hold at their current levels or perhaps slightly higher, US producer will plant closer to 90 million corn acres.     
  • What type of yield estimate will the USDA start out using? You have to believe the USDA will start with a yield estimate somewhere between 165.5 and 167.5 bushels per acre. Bulls are hoping somewhere along the line a “weather” story can build that eventually causes the the trade to consider a 10-12 bushel reduction in yield. If this is to happen prices could certainly push north of $5.00 in 2015.  The problem is without a bullish weather story, yields around or north of 167 bushels per acre would certainly be hard for the bulls to overcome, hence keeping a lid on most any and all significant rallies.   
  • What about South American Production? Most sources inside the industry are looking for Brazilian corn production to be down by about 5.0 MMTS, Argentine corn production is estimated to be down some 3.0 to 4.0 MMTs. A lot will obviously depend on the weather moving forward and the planting of second-crop corn in Brazil. Most sources will tell you the second-crop in Brazil needs to be planted by late-February or at the latest the first week in March. Stay tuned…

USDA WASDE Results, January 12, 2015

US Corn & Soybean Production

Jan. #
USDA Nov.
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
2013 Final
Corn Total Crop
14.216
14.407
14.349
14.171 – 14.554
13.925
Corn Yield Avg.
171.0
173.4
173.3
171.3 – 174.3
158.8
Harvested Acres
83.1
83.097
82.765
82.057 – 83.527
87.668
Soybean Crop
3.969
3.958
3.956
3.844 – 4.020
3.358
Soy Yield Avg.
47.8
47.5
47.6
46.8 – 48.2
44.0

Harvested Acres

83.1
83.403
83.044
82.126 – 83.403
76.253

2014/15 January Ending Stocks

 
Jan. #
USDA Dec 2014
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
1.877
1.998
1.927
1.710 – 2.081
Soybeans
0.410
0.410
0.393
0.355 – 0.452
Wheat
0.687
0.654
0.666
0.636 – 0.699

December 1st Quarterly Stocks

 
Jan #
USDA Sep. 1
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
USDA Dec 1, 2013
Corn
11.203
1.236
11.123
10.820 – 11.325
10.453
Soybeans
2.524
0.092
2.590
2.400 – 2.742
2.154
Wheat
1.520
1.914
1.499
1.400 – 1.585
1.475

2014/15 World Ending Stocks

 
Jan #
USDA Dec 2014
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
189.15
192.20
191.19
186.50 – 193.00
Soybeans
90.78
89.87
89.35
87.40 – 90.55
Wheat
196
194.90
194.33
190.90 – 196.00

USDA Winter Wheat Acres

 
Jan #
Previous USDA
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Total Winter
40.45
42.399
42.564
41.000 – 44.000
Hard Red
29.50
30.471
31.023
29.800 – 32.115
Soft Red
7.50
8.498
8.039
7.432 – 8.739
White
3.48
3.430
3.502
3.200 – 3.823

USDA Estimates for Final 2014 production

US Corn & Soybean Production

 
Jan. #
USDA Nov.
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
2013 Final
Corn Total Crop
???
14.407
14.349
14.171 – 14.554
13.925
Corn Yield Avg.
???
173.4
173.3
171.3 – 174.3
158.8
Harvested Acres
???
83.097
82.765
82.057 – 83.527
87.668
Soybean Crop
???
3.958
3.956
3.844 – 4.020
3.358
Soy Yield Avg.
???
47.5
47.6
46.8 – 48.2
44.0

Harvested Acres

???
83.403
83.044
82.126 – 83.403
76.253

2014/15 January Ending Stocks

 
Jan. #
USDA Dec 2014
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
???
1.998
1.927
1.710 – 2.081
Soybeans
???
0.410
0.393
0.355 – 0.452
Wheat
???
0.654
0.666
0.636 – 0.699

December 1st Quarterly Stocks

 
Jan #
USDA Sep. 1
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
USDA Dec 1, 2013
Corn
???
1.236
11.123
10.820 – 11.325
10.453
Soybeans
???
0.092
2.590
2.400 – 2.742
2.154
Wheat
???
1.914
1.499
1.400 – 1.585
1.475

2014/15 World Ending Stocks

 
Jan #
USDA Dec 2014
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
???
192.20
191.19
186.50 – 193.00
Soybeans
???
89.87
89.35
87.40 – 90.55
Wheat
???
194.90
194.33
190.90 – 196.00

USDA Winter Wheat Acres

 
Jan #
Previous USDA
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Total Winter
???
42.399
42.564
41.000 – 44.000
Hard Red
???
30.471
31.023
29.800 – 32.115
Soft Red
???
8.498
8.039
7.432 – 8.739
White
???
3.430
3.502
3.200 – 3.823

2014/15 South American Production Numbers

 
Jan #
USDA Dec 2014
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Brazil Corn
???
75.00
74.66
72.25 – 75.80
Argentine Corn
???
22.00
22.49
21.20 – 29.20
Brazil Soy
???
94.00
94.60
93.50 – 98.00
Argentine Soy
???
55.00
55.45
54.00 – 59.20

USDA’s ​December Supply & Demand

USDA’s ​December Supply & Demand

US 2014/15 Ending Stocks (In millions of bushels)

 
 USDA Dec. 
Avg. Estimate
Range of Estimates
USDA Nov.
Corn
1.998
​2.027
1.905 – 2.156
2.008
Soybeans
.410
​0.427
0.400 – 0.455
0.450
Wheat
.654
​0.654
0.642 – 0.681
0.644

World 2014/15 Ending Stocks (In million metric tons)

 
 USDA Dec.
Avg. Estimate
Range of Estimates
USDA Nov.
Corn
192.20
​191.42
189.60 – 194.00
​191.50
Soybeans
89.87
​89.7
88.50 – 91.60
90.28
Wheat
194.90
191.75
189.50 – 193.20
 
​192.90
 

South American 2014/15 Production Worksheet

USDA Dec.
Avg. Trade Guess
Trade Range
USDA Nov.
Argentina
Corn
22.00
23.07
21.00 – 29.10
23.00
Soybeans
55.00
55.45
55.00 – 58.60
55.00
Brazil
Corn
75.00
74.01
68.70 – 75.50
75.00
Soybeans
94.00
93.39
92.00 – 98.00
94.00
 

Corn & Soybeans Left To Harvest

How Much Corn Is Still In The Field? The USDA now reports the US corn harvest at 89% complete, which is actually ahead of our 88% 5-year average. I wanted to shift things up a bit in this weeks graphic. Rather than showing the percent harvested, I wanted to show what we think might be left out in the field.  The numbers below represent how many million bushels of corn might still be left in each state. This is obviously a simple elementary guess based on the precent of ground the USDA is estimating still needs to be harvested and the USDA’s most recent state production estimate. As you can see, there’s still probably some 1.0 to 1.5 billion bushels in the field.  According to the USDA Michigan still has 41% left to harvest; WI 36% left to harvest; PA 21%; OH 19%; CO & IN 16%; ND 15%; MO & NE 9%; IA & SD 8%; IL 6%; KY & MN 5%; KS 4%; TX 3%; TN 1%.

How Many Soybeans Are Still In The Field? The USDA reported the US soybean crop, as of Sunday, at 94% harvested compared to 90% last week and 96% on average. Similar to corn, I wanted to shift things up a bit in this weeks graphic. Rather than showing the percent harvested, I wanted to show what we think might be left out in the field.  The numbers below represent how many million bushels of soybeans might still be left to harvest in each state. This is obviously a simple elementary guess based on the precent of ground the USDA is estimating still needs to be harvested and the USDA’s most recent state production estimate.  As you can see, there’s probably only some 200 million bushels still out in the field.  According to the USDA North Carolina still has 47% left to harvest; KY 25% left to harvest; MO 19%; TN 17%; KS & MI 8%; IN, OH & WI 7%; IL 5%; AR 4%; MS 3%; IA 2%; MN 1%

USDA November Supply & Demand Results

USDA Highlights – In a somewhat surprising move the USDA elected to lower their US corn yield estimate from 174.2 down to 173.4 bushels per acre.  Corn acres left “unchanged.” Corn exports as well as feed and residual were left “unchanged.” Corn use for ethanol was raised by 25 million bushels. Food, seed and industrial was raised by 5 million bushels as well.

 Soybean yield raised slightly from 47.1 to 47.5 bushels per acre.  US soybean acreage left “unchanged”. Soybean exports raised higher by 20 million bushels.  Soybean crush raised higher by 10 million bushels. Residual raised by 1 million bushels.  Net-net no change in the 450 ending stocks estimate. 

Wheat crop (US) lowered by 9 million bushels as yield and harvested acreage is reduced. 

Global Changes:     

  • Chinese corn crop lowered from 217.00 down to 214.00.  At the same time they lowered Chinese corn imports from 3.00 down to 2.50 
    • Ukraine corn production raised higher by 2.0 MMTs 
    • EU corn production raised higher by 2.03 MMTS  
    • Argentine & Brazilian corn production left “unchanged” 
    • Argentine & Brazilian soybean production “unchanged” 
    • World soybean production raised from 311.20 to 312.06
    • Australian wheat production lowered from 25.0 to 24.0
    • Kazakhstan wheat production lowered from 12.50 to 12.0
    • EU wheat production raised from 153.98 to 155.40  
    • Russian wheat production left “unchanged”  
    • World wheat production lowered from 721.12 down to 719.86 
USDA’s NOVEMBER Supply & Demand Worksheet

US 2014/15 Production (In billions of bushels and per-acre yields)

 
USDA Nov. 
Avg. Estimate
Range of Estimates
USDA Oct.
USDA 2013
Corn Production
14.407
14.551
14.242 – 14.842
14.475
13.925

Corn
Yield

173.4
175.233
171.40 – 178.60
174.2
158.8
Soybeans Production
3.958
3.976
3.903 – 4.064
3.927
3.358
Soybean Yield
47.5
47.608
46.80 – 48.70
47.1
44.00

US 2014/15 Ending Stocks (In millions of bushels)

 
USDA Nov. 
Avg. Estimate
Range of Estimates
USDA Oct.
Corn
2.008
2.135
1.850 – 2.282
2.081
Soybeans
0.450
0.442
0.403 – 0.513
0.450
Wheat
0.644
0.660
0.634 – 0.682
0.654

World 2014/15 Ending Stocks (In million metric tons)

 
USDA Nov.
Avg. Estimate
Range of Estimates
USDA Oct.
Corn
191.5
190.77
185.60 – 194.18
190.58
Soybeans
90.28
90.37
89.50 – 92.55
90.67
Wheat
192.9
192.15
189.79 – 196.40
192.59

 

Corn & Soybean Harvest, Winter Wheat Conditions

The US corn harvest is now reported at 80% complete and back on pace with the 5-year average.  Some of the bulls are talking more about “weather” concerns, primarily those concerns that pertain to the 1.0 billion plus bushels of corn that still remain out in the fields of: IA (approximately 435 million bushels still in the fields); MN (about 125 million); WI (about 245 million); and the Dakota’s (about 225 million). The bears on the other hand seem content adding little if any “risk-premium” to the remaining harvest concerns, especially now that we are no longer “behind.” 

WeeklyHarvestedCorn11.10.14(580)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

90% of a record US soybean crop is out of the field now, compared to the 5-year average of 91%.

WeeklyHarvestedSoybea11.10.14(580)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US winter wheat crop appears to have improved a bit from last week as the overall condition rating jumps from 59% to 60% now rated “Good-to-Excellent.”  The crop is also right on track in regard to planting pace and is slightly ahead of schedule in regard to emergence.

WeeklyHarvestedWheat11.10.14(580)

Corn & Soybean Yield Estimates

USDA expects yields to average 173.4 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushel from their previous forecast. Many seasoned traders will tell you this was clearly unexpected and somewhat bullish news.  They will also tell you when a market fails to rally (as it did yesterday) on a bullish headline, it’s a market that may be headed for more downhill price action.

November1CornYields(580)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The USDA raised the yield by 0.4 bushels per acre. There were really no major changes in state estimates to speak of. We still have record high yields forecast for AR, IL, IN, OH, MO, SD, TN, etc..

November1SoybeanYields(580)

Corn & Soybean Harvest, Winter Wheat Planting

Corn harvest jumps +15% from the previous week and now stands at 46% complete.  We are still running well behind our 5-year average of 65%, but we are quickly moving in the right direction. The areas currently running the furthest behind are: ND 30% behind; IA 29% behind; WI 27% behind; SD 26% behind; MN 22% behind; NE 19% behind; and IL 13% behind. 

unnamed2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soybean Harvest: US producers pushed harvest from 53% complete last week to 70% complete this week.  Even though they made huge strides, we are still running about 6% behind our 5-year harvested average of 76%. The states lagging the furthest behind are: MI 29% behind; IN 25% behind; OH 23% behind; and WI 16% behind. 

WeeklyHarvested10.27.14Soybeans(580)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The USDA shows the winter wheat crop at 84% planted, which is on average as a whole, but states like IL are still running 34% behind their traditional pace. In their first estimate of the year, the USDA rated 59% of the winter wheat crop in “Good-to-Excellent” condition compared to about 61% rated “Good-to-Excellent” last year.

WeeklyHarvested10.27.14Wheat(580)

Comparing Soybeans …”Past to the Present”

As you can see there have been some drastic changes in the “stocks-to-use” ratio during the past five years.  Something else to keep in mind is that the 2014/15 crop might actually end up over 4.0 billion bushels, especially if yield is moved to 48.0 bushels or higher.   

2010/11 = Planted 77.4  million acres; Harvested 76.6 million; Yield of 43.5; Total Production 3.329 billion; Total Use 3.279 billion bushels; Stocks-to-Use ratio 6.6%; Avg. Farm Price $11.30

2011/12 = Planted 75.0 million acres; Harvested 73.8 million; Yield of 41.9; Total Production 3.094 billion; Total Use 3.155 billion bushels; Stocks-to-Use ratio 5.4%; Avg. Farm Price $12.50 

2012/13 = Planted 77.2 million acres; Harvested 76.2 million; Yield of 39.8; Total Production 3.034 billion; Total Use 3.099 billion bushels; Stocks-to-Use ratio 4.5%; Avg. Farm Price $14.40  

2013/14 = Planted 76.8 million acres; Harvested 76.3 million; Yield of 44.0; Total Production 3.358 billion; Total Use 3.478 billion bushels; Stocks-to-Use ratio 2.6%; Avg. Farm Price $13.00

2014/15 = Planted 84.2 million acres; Harvested 83.4 million; Yield of 47.1; Total Production 3.927 billion; Total Use 3.583 billion bushels; Stocks-to-Use ratio 12.6%; Avg. Farm Price $9.00-$11.00

Source: USDA historical data and current projections